Memorial Tournament Day 4: Expert Predictions, Pick, Odds for Sunday, June 7

With the final round of the Memorial Tournament having concluded earlier this week, golf betting attention has already shifted to the upcoming major championship season. The US Open, scheduled for June 18-21, 2026, at Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina, is drawing significant early betting interest across major sportsbooks.

Our analysis shows sharp money beginning to flow on several contenders, with notable line movement suggesting informed action on both favorites and longshots. The tournament, starting in 11 days, represents the second major of the 2026 season and historically produces some of the most challenging scoring conditions in professional golf.

Leading sportsbooks have established clear favorites for the upcoming US Open, with Scottie Scheffler commanding the shortest odds across all major operators:

Top Contenders (Best Available Odds):

• Scottie Scheffler: +350 (DraftKings) to +550 (FanDuel)
• Rory McIlroy: +700 (multiple books) to +1000 (FanDuel)
• Jon Rahm: +1100 (DraftKings) to +1400 (multiple books)
• Bryson DeChambeau: +1000 (DraftKings) to +2200 (FanDuel)
• Cameron Young: +1400 (BetMGM) to +1900 (FanDuel)

The significant variance in Scheffler's odds suggests books are still finding their footing with early US Open pricing. DraftKings offers the best value at +350, while FanDuel sits at +550 — a 200-point difference that represents meaningful closing line value (CLV) potential.

Notable Line Movement Patterns

We've tracked substantial movement on several players since initial odds were posted:

Bryson DeChambeau has seen his odds shorten considerably, moving from +2200 at FanDuel to +1000 at DraftKings. This dramatic shift likely reflects his recent major championship success and proven ability to overpower difficult US Open setups.

Cameron Young presents interesting value discrepancies, ranging from +1400 at BetMGM to +1900 at FanDuel. Young's US Open history and ball-striking metrics make him a sharp play, particularly at the longer odds.

Outright Winner Market

The outright winner market shows clear sharp money concentration on proven major championship performers. Scheffler's positioning as the overwhelming favorite reflects his current world ranking and consistent major championship contention.

Key Statistical Trends:

• Scheffler has finished T-2 or better in 60% of his major appearances over the past two seasons
• McIlroy seeks his first major victory since 2014, creating potential value despite consistent contention
• US Open winners since 2020 have averaged +1800 odds or longer, suggesting value in the middle tier

Props and Futures Considerations

Nationality Props: American players dominate the betting favorite list, with European contingent led by McIlroy and Rahm offering contrarian value.

Top-10 Finish Props: Historical US Open data shows approximately 40% of major champions finish outside the top 10 in the previous major, creating opportunities in mid-range players.

Pinehurst No. 2's crowned greens and strategic design favor specific player profiles that bettors should prioritize:

Key Course Characteristics:

• Inverted, dome-shaped greens that reject poorly struck approach shots
• Premium on iron play accuracy over distance
• Historically low scoring relative to modern US Open venues
• Favors precise short-game execution around complex green surrounds

Player Profile Advantages

Ball-Strikers Excel: The course heavily favors players with elite iron play. Cameron Young's iron statistics rank in the top 5% on tour, supporting his betting value despite longer odds.

Short Game Artists: Players comfortable with challenging up-and-downs from various lies around greens gain significant advantages. This profile supports Tommy Fleetwood (+2000 DraftKings) and Justin Rose (+3500 multiple books) as potential value plays.

US Open Veterans: Experience navigating USGA setups proves crucial. Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2000-2500 range) won the 2022 US Open and possesses the precise skill set Pinehurst demands.

Value Play: Cameron Young (+1600-1900)

Young represents our strongest value identification based on multiple factors:

Supporting Statistics:

• Ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach over the past 24 months
• Finished T-3 at the 2022 PGA Championship and T-5 at the 2023 Masters
• Exceptional performance in US Open qualifying historically

The 300-point odds variance between BetMGM (+1600) and FanDuel (+1900) creates clear shopping opportunities. Young's ball-striking profile aligns perfectly with Pinehurst's demands.

Contrarian Angle: European Contingent

While American players dominate betting action, European players offer contrarian value:

Jon Rahm at +1400 (multiple books) brings major championship experience and proven ability to peak for golf's biggest events. His iron play consistency and short-game creativity suit Pinehurst's requirements.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2000-2500) has finished T-5 or better in three of his past five major appearances. His methodical approach and precision around greens make him an ideal Pinehurst candidate.

Live Betting Considerations

US Open tournaments typically feature significant scoring fluctuations due to challenging conditions. Historical data shows:

• 65% of eventual winners hold at least a share of the 18-hole lead during the tournament
• Weather conditions can create 2-3 stroke scoring differentials between morning and afternoon waves
• Cut-line betting offers value opportunities based on Friday weather forecasts

Featured Matchups emerging across sportsbooks include:

Scheffler vs. McIlroy: Despite Scheffler's superior current form, McIlroy's major championship experience at challenging venues provides betting value at plus-money pricing.

Young vs. Schauffele: Both players bring similar skill sets, but Young's superior iron play metrics at Pinehurst-style courses support his side of this matchup.

Group Betting Strategy

European Group Options: Combining McIlroy, Rahm, and Fleetwood in group betting formats provides diversification while maintaining upside potential.

Ball-Striker Groups: Constructing groups around players with elite approach play statistics (Young, Schauffele, Fitzpatrick) aligns with course demands while spreading risk.

Current player form entering the US Open week proves crucial for betting decisions:

Positive Form Indicators:

• Scheffler's three wins in his past five starts demonstrate peak competitive form
• Young's recent ball-striking improvements suggest optimal preparation timing
• DeChambeau's major championship confidence from recent success

Cautionary Signals:

• Several top players managing minor physical issues that could impact performance on Pinehurst's walking-intensive layout
• Travel schedules from international tournaments affecting preparation quality

1. Shop Odds Aggressively: 200+ point variations exist across major books, particularly for mid-tier contenders
2. Prioritize Ball-Striking Metrics: Pinehurst No. 2 heavily favors precise iron play over driving distance
3. Consider European Value: American betting public creates inflated odds on quality European players
4. Monitor Weather Forecasts: Wind conditions significantly impact scoring and betting strategy
5. Track Cut-Line Movement: Friday cut-line betting offers value based on scoring conditions

Remember to set betting limits and never wager more than you can afford to lose. For problem gambling resources, contact the National Council on Problem Gambling at 1-800-522-4700.