Thanksgiving and Black Friday NFL Picks: Best Week 13 Spread Bets and Odds

The early window opens in Detroit with the traditional Lions home game, and this year they draw a Packers team that has pushed its way into the NFC playoff mix behind an efficient passing game. Books have Detroit as a small favorite in the field goal range, with most numbers sitting between Lions -2.5 and -3 and a total around 49 points.

Green Bay’s offense is more explosive than in past seasons, but their pass protection is still vulnerable and their run game can disappear for long stretches. Detroit’s defensive numbers are not elite, yet they do a good job of forcing long drives and tightening in the red zone at home. Offensively, Jared Goff and this Lions attack are built to play indoors with a strong offensive line and multiple options in the passing game.

With the spread under a field goal at some books, Detroit’s profile as a consistent home scorer in a controlled environment makes them the side. If you can still find Lions -2.5 instead of -3, that half point is worth shopping for in a game that could land close.

Sportsbook Spread Moneyline Total (O/U)

ESPN BET (via ESPN) Lions -3 (-105) Lions -145 / Packers +125 48.5

BetUS Lions -2.5 (-120) Lions -150 / Packers +129 49

Recommended play: Lions -2.5 (preferred) or -3 if needed. If the market moves hard toward Detroit and you miss the best of the number, you can also look to pair the Lions moneyline in a small holiday parlay instead of laying a worse spread.

The mid afternoon game brings one of the biggest matchups of the holiday, with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs visiting Dallas. Markets opened Kansas City as a short road favorite and have largely settled around Chiefs -3.5 with a total in the low 50s. :contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1}

Kansas City’s offense still has a very high ceiling, especially with Isiah Pacheco expected back to balance the run game, but they are also volatile. Drops, penalties and drive killing mistakes have been a theme all season. Dallas is not the most trustworthy team in tight games, but the Cowboys do get a boost from their pass rush and passing game at home, where they tend to play faster and more aggressively.

At +3.5, Dallas gives you the key hook on the field goal and the profile of a live home underdog that can trade scores with Mahomes if their protection holds up. Given the offensive upside on both sides and the tendency for holiday games to get a little wild, you could also make a case for pairing Cowboys +3.5 with an over lean in same game parlays rather than laying points on a road favorite.

Sportsbook Spread Moneyline Total (O/U)

ESPN BET (via ESPN) Chiefs -3.5 (EVEN) Chiefs -190 / Cowboys +160 52.5

FanDuel (via early odds) Chiefs -3.5 Chiefs -198 / Cowboys +166 51.5

Recommended play: Cowboys +3.5. If the spread drops to +3, consider waiting to see if +3.5 returns or use Dallas in teasers up through +7.5 rather than settling for a flat three.

The night game closes out Thanksgiving with a divisional matchup that sets up as a contrast in form. Cincinnati comes in with one of the worst records in the AFC and major defensive issues, while Baltimore has been more competitive than its 6–5 mark suggests and continues to put up points on offense. Books generally have the Ravens -7 at home with a total of 51.5, making this the highest projected scoring game on the slate.

Cincinnati’s defense has been a liability against both the run and the pass, ranking near the bottom of the league in yards allowed and points surrendered. Baltimore’s offense, meanwhile, has been efficient and explosive, with the ability to stress linebackers and safeties in space. The risk in laying a full touchdown is the back door, especially if Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense find rhythm late, but the game script favors Baltimore building a lead and forcing Cincinnati into predictable passing situations.

With both teams trending to the over and Baltimore capable of posting a big number at home, Ravens -7 is the preferred side as long as you are comfortable with the key number. If the line creeps to -7.5, you may want to look at Ravens alternative spreads or a correlated Ravens and over approach instead.

Sportsbook Spread Moneyline Total (O/U)

BetUS Ravens -7 (EVEN) Ravens -310 / Bengals +255 51.5

DraftKings (via Rotowire) Ravens -7.0 Ravens around -360 / Bengals +295 51.5

Recommended play: Ravens -7. If you are wary of the back door, you can reduce variance by using Baltimore moneyline in two leg parlays with a separate side or total you like on the holiday schedule.

Black Friday gives us one more stand alone game as the Bears travel to Philadelphia. Both teams are in the playoff conversation, but oddsmakers still see a gap, making the Eagles a touchdown favorite at Lincoln Financial Field with a total in the mid 40s. :contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3}

Chicago’s offense has improved, but it still leans heavily on quarterback play and designed runs, which can be harder to sustain against a physical front in a loud road environment. Philadelphia has its own flaws, particularly in pass defense, yet the Eagles consistently create explosive plays with Jalen Hurts and a deep receiver room. The trenches also tilt toward Philadelphia, especially if their offensive line is reasonably healthy.

Laying seven points in what profiles as a competitive game is never comfortable, but the combination of home field, offensive balance and red zone efficiency keeps the Eagles on our side here. If the spread ticks above seven, consider waiting to see if sharper money brings it back or pivoting to an Eagles team total over instead.

Sportsbook Spread Moneyline Total (O/U)

BetUS Eagles -7 (-105) Eagles -315 / Bears +258 44

Local market snapshot Eagles -7 Eagles -300 / Bears +270 44

Recommended play: Eagles -7. If the line closes at -7.5 or higher, consider bringing Philadelphia down through the key number in teasers or focusing on Eagles offensive props instead of the spread.

Here is a quick snapshot of the main betting lines for each of the four holiday games. These are composite ranges drawn from multiple legal US sportsbooks as of the morning of November 26, 2025. Lines will move based on injuries and betting action, so treat this board as a starting point for your own line shopping.

Game	Consensus Spread	Consensus Moneyline	Consensus Total (O/U)
Packers at Lions (Thu)	Lions -2.5 to -3	Lions around -145 to -150 / Packers +125 to +130	48.5 to 49
Chiefs at Cowboys (Thu)	Chiefs -3.5	Chiefs around -190 to -200 / Cowboys +160 to +170	51.5 to 52.5
Bengals at Ravens (Thu)	Ravens -7	Ravens around -310 to -375 / Bengals +255 to +295	51.5
Bears at Eagles (Fri)	Eagles -7	Eagles around -300 to -315 / Bears +258 to +270	44

Because these games are in standalone national windows, public money tends to flood in closer to kickoff. If you like a favorite at a good number, consider betting earlier in the week. If you prefer underdogs, waiting to see if you can grab an extra half point or better moneyline price can pay off.

We track line movement, injury news and betting splits all week so you can see where the value is, not just where the public is betting. Check out our state by state sportsbook guides and weekly pick articles before you place your next wager.

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