The Top 10 Sports Betting Mistakes Bettors Make (And How to Avoid Them)

Mistake 1: Betting Without a Bankroll Strategy

This is the #1 reason bettors lose long-term. Even if you pick more winners than losers, unstructured bet sizing eventually destroys your bankroll. Without a plan, you’re exposed to variance — the natural ups and downs of sports.

Example: Imagine you have a $1,000 bankroll. If you bet $100 on a “gut play” and lose, you’ve just lost 10% instantly. A few more unlucky games and you’re forced to reload or quit, even if your picks were decent overall.

Fix: Use a unit system. A standard unit is 1%–3% of your bankroll. Bet the same unit size on every play unless you have a proven, quantifiable edge. Your goal isn’t to “get rich in one weekend” — it’s to stay in the game long enough for your edge to matter.

Mistake 2: Chasing Losses

Chasing is emotional betting — doubling or tripling your next wager to “get even.” This is how recreational bettors blow up after bad beats or cold streaks. When your emotions take over, your edge disappears and your risk explodes.

Example: You lose two early NFL bets. Instead of sticking to your 1-unit plays, you fire a 5-unit live bet on Sunday Night Football just to fix the day. The favorite loses outright and now you’re down for the month, not just the day.

Fix: Stop thinking in terms of “sessions” or “days.” Think in terms of hundreds of bets. Losing days are a normal part of the process. Set a fixed unit size and never adjust it mid-game or mid-week out of frustration. If you feel tilted, stop betting and come back with a clear head.

Mistake 3: Betting Favorites Blindly

Favorites are popular because people assume “the better team should win.” Sportsbooks know this and inflate prices, especially on high-profile brands like the Cowboys, Lakers, Yankees, Chiefs, or major European soccer clubs.

Example: A marquee Premier League side is priced at -1.5 goals because the public loves backing them, but your numbers suggest the fair line is closer to -1.25. That half-goal of inflation often turns a fair bet into a negative expected value bet.

Fix: Bet numbers, not logos. Start your analysis from the underdog’s perspective: “Is this line fair, or is it inflated because everyone wants to bet the favorite?” Many of the best value spots are uncomfortable underdogs that the public wants no part of.

Mistake 4: Ignoring Line Shopping

Line shopping is one of the few edges you fully control. Getting the best number on a spread or total can be the difference between winning and losing over hundreds of bets. A half point or a slightly better price on the moneyline adds up fast.

Fix: Always compare spreads, totals, and moneylines at multiple sportsbooks before you lock in a bet. Half points matter, especially on key NFL numbers like 3 and 7. WagerIQ’s state-by-state sportsbook guides help you find the best books and bonus offers where you live so you can shop for the best line instead of settling for the first one you see.

Mistake 5: Overreacting to Recency Bias

Recency bias is your brain’s tendency to overweight what just happened. A team that looked amazing on Sunday Night Football or a striker who scored a hat trick in a Champions League match is not automatically a lock next game.

Example: A team wins 41–10 in prime time and dominates the highlight shows all week. The next game, the spread moves 1.5–3 points in their favor simply because the public can’t stop betting them. That inflated line often creates hidden value on the other side.

Fix: Zoom out. Look at full-season and multi-game metrics like yards per play, expected goals (xG) in soccer, efficiency ratings, and injury context. Headlines and blowouts can distort perception, but long-term stats usually tell the truth.

Mistake 6: Trusting Trends Too Much

Not all trends are created equal. Many are just random patterns cherry-picked to sound impressive — for example, “Team X is 9–1 in their last 10 road night games after a bye in November.” That might be fun trivia, but it’s not a predictive betting edge.

Fix: Only use trends that connect logically to how the game is played. Pace, coaching style, tempo, rest disadvantage, travel, and matchup-specific history (like a defense that struggles with mobile QBs or a soccer team that can’t defend set pieces) can have real value. Everything else is noise.

Mistake 7: Betting Emotionally

Emotional bias is kryptonite for bettors. You might bet your favorite NFL team every week “because you believe in them,” or fade a rival just because you dislike them. None of that matters to the closing line or your long-term ROI.

Example: A lifelong Steelers fan backs them at any number, even when injuries and matchup data clearly favor the opponent. They’re not betting — they’re paying to ride the emotional rollercoaster with their team.

Fix: When your favorite or least favorite team is involved, pause and ask: “If I had zero emotional attachment, would I still make this bet?” If the answer is no or you’re not sure, pass the game. The smartest bet is often the one you don’t place.

Mistake 8: Not Understanding Key Numbers

In NFL spreads and totals, certain margins show up far more often than others. These are called key numbers. For spreads, 3 and 7 are the most important. Taking -3.5 instead of -2.5 or +2.5 instead of +3.5 can dramatically change your long-term results.

Fix: Learn the key numbers for every market you bet:

• NFL spreads: 3, 7, 6, 10 are especially important
• NBA totals: clusters around certain scoring ranges
• Soccer goal lines: 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5 in Asian handicaps

Once you understand key numbers, you’ll appreciate how valuable that extra half point you get from line shopping really is.

Mistake 9: Ignoring Injuries & Market Information

Timing matters. Injury news, weather, lineup rotations, and market movement all impact line value. Bettors who place wagers without checking updates often lock in the worst possible number.

Example: An NBA star gets ruled out 30 minutes before tip. The spread moves 5–7 points. Or in the NFL, a quarterback listed as “questionable” is suddenly ruled out Sunday morning, and the line shifts dramatically. In soccer, a key striker or center-back being benched can swing both win odds and totals.

Fix: Build a simple information routine:

• Follow beat writers and team reporters on social media
• Use injury trackers and official league updates
• Watch line movement throughout the week, not just on game day
• Avoid betting early in the week if the game revolves around a questionable star

You don’t have to be first to every piece of news, but you should avoid being the last person to adjust.

Mistake 10: Betting Too Many Games

Recreational bettors love action. They want something on every game, every slate, every league. The problem: more bets mean more vig paid and more exposure to random variance — especially if your edge is small or inconsistent.

Example: You fire at 12 NFL games on Sunday because “it’s more fun that way.” Even if you go 7–5, the juice on all those -110 bets can turn a decent record into a tiny profit or even a loss.

Fix: Think like a sniper, not a machine gun. Focus on your best 2–5 edges per weekend or per slate. Specialize in certain leagues, markets, or bet types where you build real expertise instead of spraying small edges (or no edge at all) across the entire board.